Delphi's Flu Forecasts Prove Most Accurate

For the third year in a row, Carnegie Mellon University's forecasts of national influenza activity have proven to be the most accurate among all forecasting systems evaluated by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

CMU's Delphi research group fielded two forecasting systems during the flu season that ended in May. The systems ranked 1 and 2 among the 28 systems submitted to the CDC's forecasting research initiative by university and governmental research groups.

In contrast to the CDC's longstanding flu surveillance network, which measures flu activity after it occurs, the forecasting effort attempts to look into the future, much like a weather forecast, so health officials can plan ahead.

Delphi is comprised of faculty and students from CMU’s machine learning, statistics, computer science and computational biology departments.

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